Louis Spence's Premier League Preview || Bookies Get It Wrong Again?

BOOKIES GET IT WRONG AGAIN? 25-8-07
Louis Spence

'The easy confidence with which I know another man's religion is folly teaches me to expect that my own is also.' Mark Twain.

Thus it is with the great majority of football supporters and their unwavering support, despite innumerable disappointments, to their chosen, and hopefully, local sides. Their chosen team is, in many cases, their religion.

For myself, having been a Boro fan for 54 years and I never cease to be amazed at the flippant disregard some locals have towards their 'natural' team. I personally know of locally born people who are avid supporters of Manchester United. In every other way these guys are OK but I cannot reconcile the fact that they come out with rubbish such as 'We'll beat you easily.' I sometimes feel like beating them about their disloyal heads.

I used to play for my local youth club side despite the fact I could have played for better teams, as could have a couple of my mates. Those who joined the sides with better winning reputations were known as Pot Hunters (That is silverware in the forms of cups and winners' medals). I still look disapprovingly at those who chose to play for better sides and that is over fourty years ago.

They had to be associated with success even to the point of ditching their own mates. Just the same as the far flung champions' supporters. Lily-livered one and all methinks. Unlike most Boro supporters I reserve my wrath for this kind of leech rather than home based Sunderland or Newcastle fans.

Which brings me to this weekend's fixtures and the respective odds that reputations apparently demand. Top of the pile Manchester City are rank outsiders to an as yet unconvincing Arsenal. The league leaders are at 6.2 against Mr. W's lot at 1.68 for victory. Portsmouth, once more off to a solid start are at an astonishing 19.0 to conquer the less than watertight Chelsea who are 1.32. The West London fortress has forged a fearsome reputation.

Stuttering Spurs look far less value at 7's against the afore-mentioned Manchester United (1.58) who must be due a good 'un if Fergie's hairdryer reputation is to be maintained. It would have been a moron or a genius to forecast this lot in the bottom five with three matches played. Troubled times for Martin Jol if the bookies have this one nailed.

Liverpool are at 1.68 away to the Mackems at 6's who have just recruited Goal King Cole though not in time to get the nod for this one. The reputation game does not end here. One of the more interesting punts concerns winless and clueless Bolton who still get the favourite's role against the hard working and well organised Reading. Odds are 2.42 against 3.25.

Aston Villa look an unattractive 1.83 to Fulham's 5.3. Everton and Blackburn have both got solid sides with even more solid starts behind them, with the soon to relocate Toffees coming in at 2.3. Bye Bye Blackburn perhaps at 3.75 though personally this looks to be perfect draw material to me. Those 'orrible 'ammers are faves at 2.06 to despatch the surprising Wigan at 4.3. Down amongst the 'dead men' Derby are an unconvincing 2.62 versus Brum at 3.05.

Thus we arrive at the region's first derby of the season. Newcastle have weighed in at 2.78 against Boro's 2.86. If the home side can get this one under their belts successfully it will all start looking a lot rosier for them especially with the departure of the second lardarse from the firing line.

It would be simply brilliant to put off the ridiculously optimistic Geordie fans from cancelling family hols to pursue more Champions League fantasies. Hand on heart I actually fancy Boro to win now we have a grafter up front.

And thus we have it. Reputations counting more than current form in many cases. Premiership football is indeed a serious sport and so is the business of the bookies in getting things right. So I will leave you with author George Orwell's view on such things.

'Serious sport has nothing to do with fair play. It is bound up with hatred, jealousy, boastfulness, disregard of all rules and sadistic pleasure in witnessing violence: in other words it is war minus the shooting.'

I, for one, could not and would not argue with such an assertion.

Louis Spence

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