Warnock Weekly 24-4-08 || Middlesbrough F.C. news, reviews and comment

WARNOCK WEEKLY - TYPICALLY UNPREDICTABLE - 24-4-08
Tom Warnock

The two most frequently used words in a Boro related piece of text have to be 'typical' and 'unpredictable'.

We all know the reasons behind this but we never know if it will come true until the referee's whistle has signalled kick-off. However, it's fairly easy to predict how a Boro game will go after the first five minutes.

If only we could know before we have laid out our cash and sacrificed two hours from an otherwise perfect Saturday drinking session. But we don't know. Just as we don't know whether we will be relegated or not, which is why I have dedicated this week's column to finding out just how real that threat is.

And I'll warn you now, you won't have any fingernails left when this one's over.

Firstly let's get the best case scenario out of the way. If we win on Saturday at Sunlun and Birmingham lose at home to Liverpool then we're safe. Cue the cheap mid-table bubbly.

In times gone by, winning at Sunderland to secure safety would have been an absolute gift for any relegation threatened team.

But things have changed under Roy Keane and this is a mammoth task in my view. We have won a total of three of the last thirteen games. All were 1-0 and they were versus Fulham, Sheffield United and Derby at home. In all three games, we were hanging on by a thread in the last minute. And Gareth calls this improvement?

It's amazing how you can spin a scenario when you set low expectations.

So here we go with this weekend's action:

On Saturday we could go to Sunderland and come away pointless. We could play out of our skin but get nothing, with a typical late Sunderland goal winning it for them after another hatful of missed chances from our near £20million strikeforce.

Meanwhile, Birmingham could take advantage of Liverpool's demoralising late collapse against Chelsea and sneak a point.

Bolton face Spurs at White Hart Lane and whilst this one could go the way of Bolton (who will be buoyed by the win at the Riverside), we'll assume Spurs have enough to see them off. This, however, is far from a foregone conclusion.

In what is a massive six-pointer, Reading face Wigan at the JJB. This is a game that could go either way. We need Wigan to win this game as this would have disastrous consequences for Reading. Even if Reading lose, however, they still wouldn't be down and they could still catch us. However a draw is the likely outcome here.

So after Saturday's hypothetical results, Boro sit just four points above the drop zone with six points to play for.

Now this leaves us needing to win at least one game out of our last two to keep it in our hands. Easy, yeah? Or have we forgotten three wins in thirteen attempts already? Thought so.

If you're not feeling edgy yet, then you must be made of steel.

Right then, a week on:

We face Pompey at home and we need a win. It's simply imperative we win this one.

This could go either way. They have the FA Cup Final to think about but on the other hand, they have Jermain Defoe who can't play in the Final. He is also firing on all cylinders, no matter who the opposition. I see us drawing this game, just.

It had to be sod's law that Birmingham face the second worst team in the League on the same day, as they travel to Fulham. The Brum will still be on a high from the galvanising point at Anfield and Mikael Forssell and James McFadden should dismiss Fulham with little problem. This would give them 35 points. They would now have only two points less than us with one game to go.

Bolton face the Mackems, who are now safe and sound, whilst Bolton need the points desperately. This one could decide it.

However, despite Sunderland already being safe by this point, they will prevent Bolton from winning. This would render the Boro home and dry. While I had no intention of predicting the demise of my beloved club, it's so easy to see how the unthinkable could happen. Gareth must stop this from happening.

I don't believe we have what it takes to determine our own fate and with our recent record, how can anyone argue against the fact that draws are the best we can hope for?

Yet we must win on Saturday and then it can all be over. Unfortunately I can't envisage that happening. This means the above rollercoaster may come to fruition, especially if Birmingham can clinch a result at Anfield. This can't be that hard - after all, we almost managed it.

Let's just hope we won't almost manage to survive because 'almost' just doesn't cut it.

Bring on Keano's boys.

Until next week.

RETURN TO WARNOCK WEEKLY INDEX HERE